India is one of the top 10 countries where the highest net outflows of HNWIs or the super-rich are “predicted,” along with Russia, China, Hong Kong, Ukraine, Brazil, the UK, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, a new report has said.
Forecast figures in the Henley Global Citizens Report show the top 10 countries in terms of net inflows of HNWIs in 2022 will be the UAE, Australia, Singapore, Israel, Switzerland, the US, Portugal, Greece, Canada, and New Zealand.
“Large numbers of millionaires are also expected to move to ‘the three Ms’: Malta, Mauritius, and Monaco,” says the report.
Dr Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners, says HNWI migration was a rising trend over the past decade until, understandably, it dipped in 2020 and 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. “The 2022 forecast reflects an extremely volatile environment worldwide. By the end of the year, 88,000 millionaires are expected to have relocated to new countries, 22,000 fewer than in 2019 when 110,000 moved. Next year, the world’s largest millionaire migration flows are predicted — 125,000 — as affluent investors and their families earnestly prepare for the new post-Covid world, with an as yet-to-be-revealed rearrangement of the global order and the ever-present threat of climate change as a constant backdrop.”
Andrew Amoils, Head of Research at New World Wealth, says HNWI migration figures are an excellent barometer for the health of an economy. “Affluent individuals are extremely mobile, and their movements can provide an early warning signal into future country trends. Countries that draw wealthy individuals and families to migrate to their shores tend to be robust, with low crime rates, competitive tax rates, and attractive business opportunities.”
UK and USA – the mighty are falling
According to the report, destinations that traditionally attracted wealthy investors are losing their lustre.
“The UK once touted as the world’s financial centre, continues to see a steady loss of millionaires, with net outflows of 1,500 predicted for 2022. This trend began five years ago when the Brexit vote and rising taxes saw more HNWIs leaving the country than entering for the first time. As a result, the UK has suffered a total net loss of approximately 12,000 millionaires since 2017.
The appeal of another financial giant, the US, is also dwindling fast.”
“America is notably less popular among migrating millionaires today than pre-Covid, perhaps owing in part to the threat of higher taxes. The country still attracts more HNWIs than it loses to emigration, with a net inflow of 1,500 projected for 2022, although this is a staggering 86% drop from 2019 levels, which saw a net inflow of 10,800 millionaires,” the report states.
China, Hong Kong (SAR China), India, Brazil among the biggest losers
Henley Global Citizens Report shows wealth emigration is beginning to hurt in China, with net outflows of 10,000 HNWIs expected in 2022. Amoils says, “General wealth growth in the country has been slowing over the past few years. As such, recent outflows of HNWIs may be more damaging than in the past. China’s deteriorating relationships with Australia and the US are also a major long-term concern.”
“In Hong Kong (SAR China), HNWI departures continue albeit at a slower pace, with projected net millionaire outflows of 3,000 in 2022 (a 29% drop compared to 2019). Brazil’s millionaire exodus is intensifying with net outflows of 2,500 HNWIs predicted — up 79% compared to 2019. India is expected to suffer a net loss of approximately 8,000 HNWIs in 2022, up 14% since 2019, when the net loss was 7,000. However, India produces far more new millionaires than it loses to migration each year.”
Prof. Trevor Williams, the former Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial, says emerging economies are forecast to boom in the next decade. For example, “the number of HNWIs in Sri Lanka is forecast to increase by 90% by 2031, while India and Mauritius’s millionaire growth is forecast at 80%, and China’s at 50%, compared to 20% in the USA and 10% in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.”